Analyst estimate

An analyst estimate is a forecast for a company's future revenue or earnings, published by an analyst at a bank or research firm who covers that stock. When many analysts each publish their own number, the average (or median) of those forecasts is called the consensus estimate, often just called "the Street," or what "the market expects."

This is a different thing from guidance, which is the company's own forecast for itself. Analyst estimates are independent, outside views, built from the analyst's own models, and they can agree with a company's guidance, sit above it, or sit below it. The spread between the highest and lowest individual estimates, and how many analysts are covering a stock, both say something about how much agreement there really is: a tight range across many analysts suggests broad consensus, while a wide range suggests real uncertainty about where the business is headed.

A company beating or missing its own guidance is one thing. Beating or missing the analyst consensus is usually what moves the stock price in the short term, since the market had already positioned itself around that expectation, not around the company's own number.